Source: Huachuang Securities
In November, the inventory data of the paper industry chain was released: the stock of wood pulp is still to be degraded, and the waste paper is short-term bottoming. The industrial chain of wood pulp industry: With the adjustment of the price of finished paper, the stock of wood pulp of traders has accumulated, Qingdao Port at the end of November Wood pulp stocks reached 900,000 tons, a three-year high, global wood pulp manufacturers and overseas port stocks remained stable, short-term external disk prices were loose, and high port inventory is expected to drive spot prices down. There was no significant downside in the inventory of double-adhesive paper, copper-clad paper and whiteboard paper, and the demand was slightly weaker, which led to the price adjustment.
Waste paper industry chain: Since September, with the weak downstream demand, manufacturers continue to reduce the inventory of waste paper and finished paper. At the end of November, the inventory of yellow paper stock reached 5.5 days, which is the recent low, cardboard and corrugated November box. Manufacturers and social inventories were 1.072 million tons and 1.307 million tons, respectively, down 108,000 tons and 132,000 tons from October. The price of cardboard paper was stable in the whole month of November. The weak demand in the peak season caused the price series to adjust. Short-term stock bottoming prices are expected to stabilize.
Global manufacturers and port stocks were stable, and China's port traders' stocks reached record highs: by the end of October 2018, domestic port traders' wood pulp stocks reached a record high, and Qingdao Port and Baoding Port wood pulp stocks reached 850,000 tons and 90,000 tons respectively. At the end of November, the most important wood pulp port in China, Qingdao Port's wood pulp stocks increased to 900,000 tons, a record high. By the end of October 2018, the global port wood pulp stocks reached 1.462 million tons, a new high after the price of this round of wood pulp rose in early 2017. The increase in global port wood pulp stocks was mainly due to the rise of wood pulp stocks in China's ports. On the basis of pulp stocks, the stocks of wood pulp in China's ports were subtracted. The stocks of wood pulp in overseas ports were about 500,000-600,000 tons, showing a steady state, and the overseas wood pulp stocks showed a steady state.
The inventory of wood pulp paper such as double glue and white card has not been significantly degraded: as of the end of October, the inventory of double-adhesive paper enterprises was 230,000 tons, which was 30,000 tons higher than that at the end of September. The demand for weak manufacturers in the peak season was accumulated; due to the weakness of the terminal, white paper Vendor inventory continues to de-contribute and social stocks accumulate. Since September, the price of white cardboard has been continuously adjusted. Since the beginning of this year, white cardboard has become the most adjusted paper. By November 2018, white cardboard companies have been in stock for 25 days, rising for four consecutive months, and demand is still relatively weak.
The national waste price continued to fall, and the paper mill's yellow paper stock reached a new low: as of December 14, the domestic yellow paper price was 2211/ton, which was about 700/ton lower than the August high. The external waste price contraction has shrunk to 850/ton. Since September, with the weak downstream demand, manufacturers have taken the initiative to reduce inventory, and by the end of November, the inventory of yellow paper stocks reached 5.5 days.
Boxboard corrugated paper is weak during the peak season, paper mill inventory can continue to degrade, and prices stabilized: As of December 14, the price of cardboard and corrugated paper reached 4,527/ton and 3,790/ton respectively, and the price of corrugated paper in November was stable. The price of board and corrugated paper fell by about 1140/ton and 1340/ton respectively from the May high. The weak demand led to the continuous accumulation of corrugated paper stocks in May-October in 18 years, and the paper price continued to fall;
In November, the number of container manufacturers and social inventories were 1.072 million tons and 1.307 million tons, respectively, down 108,000 tons and 132,000 tons respectively in October. The price of cardboard paper was stable in the whole month of November.
Responsible editor: Miao
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