High-yield forest and credit policy (on)

China's timber market supply and demand status and consumption demand status analysis of total timber consumption According to calculations, China’s consumption of commercial materials is about 140 million cubic meters, and in domestic consumption, domestically produced materials are about 92 million cubic meters, accounting for 64%, and imported forest products are 50 million. Cubic meters (reduced amount), accounting for 36%.
From 1993 to 1999, the total consumption of domestic commercial materials increased steadily. The domestic production of planned commercial materials decreased year by year. Before 1998, the amount of over-planned harvesting increased rapidly. After 1999, it decreased, and the sum of the two items showed a total domestic supply capacity. With a declining trend, imported wood products have grown slowly, and imported pulp and paper products have grown rapidly, with an average annual increase of 20.7%. Based on a comprehensive analysis, the domestic demand for wood consumption has increased rapidly, and domestic supply of commercial materials has shown a downward trend, while imports have increased year by year. In particular, imports of pulp and paper products have increased exponentially. Imports have become the main force to meet the growth in consumer demand for wood. The domestic forest product import dependency is as high as 40% or more, which not only increases the pressure of using foreign exchange, but more importantly it loses the great opportunity for forest industry to drive domestic economic growth. According to the research and forecast, in 2005 China's production and construction timber demand was between 230 million and 240 million cubic meters (including pulp and paper, man-made plates, and large-diameter grades, with a demand of approximately 170 million cubic meters), and the gap reached 60 million. With 70 million cubic meters, the gap in 2015 could increase to 140 million to 150 million cubic meters. The forestry industry has a broad market prospect.
Analysis of timber consumption structure Forestry is a basic industry, with a large degree of industry association. Wood consumption is mainly concentrated in the three industries of construction and decoration, furniture manufacturing and papermaking. The rapid development of the real estate industry, building decoration industry, and furniture industry has led to an increase in the demand for sawn wood products, wood-based panels, and other forest products; the rapid development of news publishing, printing, packaging, and information industries has stimulated the demand for pulp, paper, and paperboard. increase. According to industry statistics, the average annual consumption of wood-based panels in China increased by about 20% between 1993 and 1997, and the average annual increase in paper and paperboard consumption was 11.1%.
The large amount of wood consumption is mainly concentrated in the three industries of construction and decoration, furniture manufacturing and papermaking. Focusing on the analysis of these three industries, we can understand the overall trend of the growth of China's timber consumption demand.
——Great potential for growth in demand for building decoration At present, China is vigorously promoting the process of urbanization in rural areas. Real estate development has become the main economic growth point for economic growth, and the building decoration industry has begun to rise, which has led to the demand for wood for building decoration. According to statistics from the Housing Industry Promotion Center of China's Ministry of Construction, China’s annual completion of basic construction during the “Ninth Five-Year Plan” period is approximately 1.2 billion square meters, which is six times the amount of construction completed in Europe in one year. 500 million square meters. According to statistics, in 1999, the per capita living area of ​​urban residents in China reached 9.6 square meters, and the total value of residential decoration in the country was 120 billion yuan. The average annual growth rate since 1990 was 45%, equivalent to 30% of the total annual investment in urban residences in the country. 50% is used for the consumption of all types of timber forest products and consumes about 10 million cubic meters of wood. According to predictions of relevant experts, residential decoration and decoration will reach 200 billion to 300 billion yuan in the next 2 to 3 years, equivalent to about 50% of the total investment in housing. In addition, the reform of the housing system has made it possible for the total amount of public housing for residential housing to catch up with and surpass the decoration of new residential buildings. The market for residential decoration and decoration is promising.
——The structural adjustment of raw materials in the paper industry is imperative, and the demand for wood pulp grows rapidly. In 2000, the output of paper and board in China was 35 million tons, the proportion of wood pulp was approximately 18%, and the consumption of wood was 23 million cubic meters, of which domestic pulp was only It accounts for 6% to 7%, consumes 9 million cubic meters of domestic timber, and accounts for about 6% of the domestic consumption of commercial materials. According to industry planning, the consumption of paper and paperboard will reach 46 million to 48 million tons in 2005, the proportion of wood pulp will increase to 22%, and 38 million cubic meters of wood will be consumed. If the proportion of domestic pulp is increased to 15%, it needs to be consumed. 26 million cubic meters of wood. It is expected that the consumption of paper-making materials will increase at an average annual rate of 23% during the “Tenth Five-Year Plan” period. Pulp industry raw material forests have greater market development potential.
——The development of the furniture industry has accelerated the growth of wood consumption. The average annual output value of the furniture manufacturing industry increased by 16% between 1995 and 1999. In 1999, the output value reached 100 billion yuan. According to relevant department statistics, wooden furniture accounts for about 50% of the total. It is expected that during the “10th Five-Year Plan” period, China’s urban housing construction will enter a period of rapid development, and the growth of furniture production will be maintained at about 10%. In 2005, the demand for wood products for furniture will reach 21 million cubic meters.
According to the results of the 5th National Forest Inventory, the average annual actual consumption of forest resources from 1994 to 1998 was 340 million cubic meters, including 140 million cubic meters of commercial materials, or about 92 million cubic meters of exported material. The State Bureau of Forestry announced that the average annual output of commercial materials from 1994 to 1998 was 33 million cubic meters, which was mainly due to excessive quota cutting and deforestation into the market. (To be continued)