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I have never liked to write articles in accordance with the rules, tired and not to mention, the content is also very boring. If you just wave an article and you can generate a large number of votes, then the work is not easy. But it can't be done. As a new editor who doesn't have good literary talents and no visibility, it doesn't make much sense to not be realistic.
However, today I was stimulated by two whimsical essays (attached to the reader later), plus the weekend, the author simply took a piece to get an early job.
On November 8th, coal continued to rise after a high rise, and the thermal coal fell. The double-focus was still strong. On the same day, the thermal coal fell below the uptrend line, while the double-focus did not even fall below the 5-day moving average. After that, the commodities ushered in a very crazy week.
That week, iron ore continued for three consecutive daily limit, and the weekly increase was over 22%;
That week, Shanghai copper and rubber plummeted nearly 20%, and there was no decent callback in the middle;
That week, on the double eleven night, the commodity experienced a flash collapse. Many commodities went from the daily limit to the down limit, and on that day the coal was extremely resistant...
But I don’t know if the investors found out that when the blacks hit new highs and the double cokes once again set new highs, the thermal coal failed to create new highs, but gradually lowered, even though no later iron ore fell. It’s so crisp, but the shortness of the thermal coal is equally firm.
On the hourly line, we can clearly see the formation of this head. Today, the price has broken down, and there may be a rebound in the later stage. Even if it does not rule out, it will return to 600 or more again, but the pressure near the 610-615 line will be Will be extremely determined.
Next is a good analysis of the fundamentals of thermal coal. The article clearly lists the negative factors of thermal coal.
Thermal coal: increase the scope of further expansion wary of the risk of overshoot supply (Author: Meng Gu TOPIX Futures Institute)
1. Policy adjustment, legal compliance with safety production, coal mine heating season, production by 330 working days
On November 17, the National Development and Reform Commission released a news on the official website entitled “Accelerating the signing of medium- and long-term contracts to establish a long-term mechanism for the stable development of the coal industryâ€, mainly explaining the medium- and long-term contracts for coal and how to stabilize the market price. The main points are as follows:
1) From December 1st, the medium and long-term contracts for key coal and power generation enterprises will be implemented. According to the "base price + floating price" pricing model, the benchmark price of 5,500 kcal is 535 yuan / ton. In order to guarantee the execution of the contract, the terms of breach of contract and the content of supervision are emphasized. At present, Shenhua and China Coal have signed contracts with the five major power generation groups, and coal and Yitai are also following up.
2) In response to the problem of insufficient supply of advanced production capacity during the winter storage period, the NDRC stated that all legally-compliant coal mines with safe production conditions can organize production according to 330 working days before the end of the heating season.
3) It is emphasized that key coal enterprises should take the lead in stabilizing prices, and the regulatory authorities should seriously investigate and punish the behavior of disrupting market price order, and strengthen the coordination of resources to ensure the demand for key coal for heat generation.
In the above points, in addition to the previously defined policy measures such as medium- and long-term contracts and capacity guarantees for coal, the focus should be paid attention to. The NDRC stated that “all legally qualified coal mines with safe production conditions will be completed before the end of the heating season. All can be organized according to 330 working days." The concept of “advanced capacity†is not emphasized in this statement, nor does it indicate which type of safety production standards are required for mines with safe production conditions. Then, we can think that as long as the safety production coal mines identified by the local safety supervision department can meet the conditions of phased production increase, it is equivalent to basically recovering 330 working days of domestic compliance production capacity. According to the current national compliance rate of 276 nuclear reductions of 3.3 billion tons, the monthly average increase in production can reach about 52 million tons. If these increments can be released, the supply growth rate can reach 18% in October, which is quite impressive.
2. The port inventory increased greatly, the power plant replenishment was not active, and the coal-fired game was short-term unfavorable coal price.
Since the Spontaneous Reform Commission emphasized the protection of winter storage capacity and the increase of port inventory, railway transportation has been tilted toward coal. In addition, in the past two weeks, due to military exercises, weather problems, etc., the port closure of the northern port, Qinhuangdao port coal stocks rose sharply. As of November 16, Qinang coal stocks have reached 6.11 million tons, exceeding the same period of 2013-2015. In addition, although the absolute level of coal inventory in the Bohai Sea four ports is still at a low level, it has also rebounded rapidly.
At the same time that the port stocks were piled up, we found that although entering the seasonal consumption season, the power plant did not carry out active replenishment activities. With the increase in average coal consumption per day, the absolute inventory levels of the six major power plants have remained at between 1 and 12 million tons, even if the total number of available days declines or even falls below the relative safety margin of 20 days or 19 days in individual periods. There is no obvious replenishment stock. The reason for this phenomenon is that we mainly focus on two aspects: First, the medium- and long-term contract for coal will be implemented in December. For the power plant, the benchmark price of 535 yuan/ton is 585 yuan/year relative to the four major groups. The level of tons has great advantages. Therefore, at this point in time, the power plant will tend to slow down the replenishment rhythm and maintain low inventory; in addition, the power plant will not choose the current one in anticipation of the future supply still increasing and the coal price has downside risks. Replenish the library at the time. Therefore, the initiative of the power plant to delay the replenishment of the reservoir further pushed up the inventory level of the port, which also caused the price of the Bohai Sea thermal coal price index to fall for two consecutive periods. In the short term, the coal price of the port still has the risk of falling, but in the seasonal peak season. Under the support, the decline will be more limited.
3, winter storage peak season may have expected difference, supply overshoot risk
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the national raw coal output in October increased by only 1.77% from September. If we consider the average daily output, the average daily output in October is even lower than the September level, which indicates that the coal supply increase that was included in the capacity release range in October is very limited, and the partial increase is offset by the closure of the mine. Judging from the recent policy attitudes toward the coal spot market and the futures market, the regulatory authorities are very eager to stabilize coal prices. Since coal is still the most important basic energy source in China, its price increase has a wide range of influence. The cost of many downstream industries has increased, and the cost-side support has pushed up prices, and even has a significant impact on inflation levels. Therefore, we also see that the regulatory authorities have adopted measures such as releasing supply, increasing capacity, requiring key enterprises to stabilize prices, and curbing speculation in the futures market to prevent coal prices from rising. This can be seen from the latest NDRC’s “All legally qualified coal mines with safe production conditions, which can be produced according to 330 working days before the end of the heating season†and the speed at which the port inventory rises.
At the policy level, the scope of the release of coal supply has been significantly relaxed, which may also be related to the prevailing winter reserve season in the market. We also hold the same view in the semi-annual report and the Four Seasons. At that time, on the one hand, hydropower fell sharply. On the one hand, the La Niña incident may cause low temperatures in winter. However, from the recent observation of high frequency data, some changes have taken place. In terms of hydropower, from September to October, we saw that the water level difference and warehousing flow in the upper and lower reaches of the Three Gorges were significantly lower than the same period of the past five years. However, this phenomenon has changed significantly since entering November, and the water level of the Three Gorges has begun to recover and the inflow rate has also increased. Therefore, the problem of a sharp fall in hydropower in November may change.
In addition, the winter temperatures are significantly lower than in the same period of the previous year and the expectations of the La Niña incident also require some corrections. According to the forecast of the National Climate Center, the temperature anomalies in the northern regions of Northeast China and Xinjiang are obviously low in the next 30 days from November 16, and there are similar problems in East China and Central China, but they will not reach extreme cold. Degree. In most parts of the Northwest, the temperature anomaly is higher. In addition, from the time interval, the temperature anomaly is mainly in the 1-20 days from the current, that is, mainly in November and early December. According to the forecast, the probability of high temperature anomalies in most parts of the country is relatively large within 21-40 days from November 16. In addition, from the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which is predicted by the Australian Meteorological Administration to predict the La Niña phenomenon, the probability of La Niña occurring at the end of the year is not high. Although the Southern Oscillation Index once broke the threshold of the La Nina event +7, it quickly fell back. At least for now, there is still no clear evidence that the La Niña event will occur during the year. Of course, the probability of a cold winter has a two-way impact on electricity demand. On the one hand, heating demand will fall, on the other hand, there will be some positive effects on industrial enterprises, thus supporting industrial electricity demand, but we still need to be alert to the winter storage season. Coal demand is less than expected.
If the policy determines the increase in coal supply based on the expectation of a boom in the winter storage season, there is a greater risk. Although during the peak season, due to the rebound in demand, the price is unlikely to show a significant downside. However, as the coal consumption of power plants declines in the first quarter of next year, if there is a lag in the re-tightening of coal supply (from the perspective of the rate of supply release since October, we believe that the possibility of policy regulation supply is lagging), the price There will be a big risk of falling back. In addition, it is not excluded that coal enterprises will choose to expand supply increments at a higher level (ie, re-emergence problems occur again) in the case of expected price declines. In general, investors should be alert to the price risks of over-adjustment and re-tightening of supply.
4. Investment advice
Based on the above analysis, we believe that short-term thermal coal prices will have certain downside risks due to the accumulation of port inventory, delayed replenishment of power plants and the expected release of coal supply. However, due to the peak season, the coal consumption of power plants will continue to rise seasonally. Even if the price falls, the range will be limited, and the overall price will tend to fluctuate. The greater risk in the future lies in the expected poor demand for winter storage, the possible overshoot of supply and the lag in the supply of administrative regulation, which will cause a greater downward pressure on thermal coal in the first quarter of next year. We have adjusted the price range of the thermal coal 1701 contract to 550-650 yuan / ton, and remind investors to pay attention to the price risk of the far-month contract.
5, risk tips
The winter storage season demand is significantly better than the same period of the previous year, there is no lag in the release and tightening of coal supply.
Attach that strange text:
2016 best satirical prose: "霾 is hometown thick" (author is too talented!)
In the deep winter season, I have been in Hainan for a few days, and there are always some flaws. Tonight, the mountain rains at the beginning of the break, and the moon is like a dragonfly. I suddenly miss the hometown.
At this time, the hometown is a good season for tea. About three or five friends on the high-rise platform, a pot of old wine, half roots, overlooking the ancient city. Looking at the sky, the sky and the earth, occasionally revealing the towers of distant high-rise buildings, faintly mirage. The face is not wet and enters the nose. On the street, but the car and horses, do not see pedestrians, such as the time and space tunnel into the science fiction world.
Oh, it’s a business card, it’s an unforgettable sight.
I have been acquainted with the hustle and bustle of Beijing. The posture is very large but it is warm and temperate, but it is fierce but not memorable. Less of the old man's stagnation and calmness. In the end, the history of Jiandu is too short, and at a glance, the experts know that the bottom is still thin. Just like the singer’s face on the face of the singer’s singer’s face, although he’s full of enthusiasm, he’s less scented.
Shanghai is also awkward, too light, too cautious, too delicate, just like their petty bourgeoisie, far less mellow and more mellow, more nose, take a sip, a happy, smooth, generous and sad. As for Shijiazhuang, it is even less influential. It looks like a thick, slightly over the nose, can not cover the mud, and does not have a layer. After all, it is a steel capital, and the scorpion is full of modernity brought by the metal content, soaking and fulfilling. More particular is the long aftertaste after chewing, chewing.
It is said that the old absorbing family can identify the source of cockroaches: the steel that comes from the sputum is a state-owned cockroach, more mellow, and has a metallic taste. Wu'an tastes more mixed and is a mixed type. If the aftertaste has garlic, it is definitely a product of Yongnian small smelting furnace. The winds are different all year round, and the smell is different. Everywhere, foreigners feel that the culture of the ancient city has a long history. When I was a toddler, I had to drop out of school today. It is rumored that Shijiazhuang is fascinated by the provincial capital and wants to pass the name of the ancestors. "Only it is not to fight, can not compete with it." He is deep in the ancient training.
There are still people who are not in the same place: the seasons are the same, never slack off due to the timing. This is the only strength that can only be found in the ancient capital of the millennium. I also disappointed the guests who did not let the name of the audience. Oh, it has become an indispensable part of the daily life of local people, just like the microbes in the water are fish and shrimp, and the storm is in Haiyan. In the summer, occasionally heavy rain starts, and the suffocation is slightly reduced, which makes people feel suddenly. At this time, the neighbors can hardly see each other clearly, often pulling a few gossips: "Zhang Jie, I have not seen you for two years, you can be much thinner." "This was the case last year. Oh, yes, it didn't rain very much last year. You can't see."
People who love the moon can't miss it. To enjoy the moon, if you only like the distant mountains and waters, the moon stars are thin, it looks shallow and is ridiculed by the Yake. Since it is a reward, it is necessary to have some cover to be subtle and graceful. "The fog is lost, the moon is lost, the Taoyuan is not looking for it." The beauty of Chinese art often lies in the inability to write, leaving room for imagination. Such as the brushwork of Chinese painting in the freehand brushwork, between the likes and the likes, "too much like kitsch, not like to deceive the world." But the ancients missed the beauty of the moon. The smog here is completely isolated from the heavens and the earth, leaving no gaps. It’s a fun to remember the moon, and it’s a fun, and this mediocrity poet is simply a bad news. If a local child wants to enter the poem with a starry sky, he needs to go to the Internet to see the picture, or listen to the old people saying "long and long ago." I thought it would be helpful to cultivate imagination.
The efficacy of 霾 is not limited to art, but also makes everyday life interesting. In the smog, the opposite building is like a curtain. At this time, the curtains are superfluous. No matter what you do at home, it is both open and safe, which is incomprehensible to innocent cities. If this is thicker, I am afraid that even thieves will not dare to burglary. Stealing things, getting out of the way, this is enough to make the thief timid. According to the folks, the number of law and order cases in the past two years has dropped significantly, which proves the contribution of 霾 to the harmonious society.
This is true if one side of the water and soil is a party. Regarding the attitude of ambiguity, the people of Beijing have revealed their ambiguity, and they have talked about the ambiguity of "霾", and they have never seen the world. The monks have their own Yanzhao legacy. "Taishan collapsed in front and the heart was not shocked. The deer was in the left and not in sight." The square dance is still hot, and the folk chorus in the parks and riversides is still shining. What is more spiritual is that they will never bother to wear masks, despise any weak behavior by means of foreign objects, and firmly believe in the great power of life. If there is no precipitation for thousands of years, there will be no such calm and determined folk customs. If you can take time, you may be able to produce a new human species called 邯郸人. Smoke and squirt iron nails, eat pesticides and pull mosquito coils. This must be the glory of the monks who have been proud of the ancient Zhao.
Hainan also has a fascinating day, it is just fog. Such as the lightness of the yarn, such as the lightness of the smoke, like the soft language of Jiangnan people, it is nice but lost to greasy and thin. Especially in the autumn and winter seasons, there have been many discomforts in Hainan for a long time, and I always feel that I am alienated from the green mountains and green waters. Occasionally standing in the middle of the road, the most dense place in the car, taking a few deep breaths, my heart suddenly faint nostalgia.
Dew from the white tonight, it is the hometown thick. I will pack my bags and go back to my hometown. I will take advantage of this best season.
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